Hi everyone. I hope the start of your week is going well. Welcome to the Monday Cardinals chat at STL Today dot com. Post-Dispatch baseball writer Daniel Guerrero here. The Cardinals could not complete a sweep of the Brewers Sunday at Busch Stadium and now head on the road to face the Reds for four games before returning home Friday to face the Mets. What do you want to talk about?
(BTW, I’ll have a transcript of the chat below the text box that I’ll try to update regularly as this chat goes on.)
Ray Jay: At the current pace the Cardinals will be out of the pennant race by the trade deadline. Who do you see them trading? Helsley seems the most obvious, possibly Arenado. Matz, perhaps? Do you think they will give up on Walker or Gorman by then?
Guerrero: If the Cardinals slip in the standings to a point where selling is the obvious decision, those names you mentioned seem like obvious candidates. My assumption is that there would be interest from contending teams to add starting pitching, which would make Erick Fedde an asset that could be moved since he is on an expiring contract. Steven Matz's value would be interesting, depending on his usage. He’s pitched regardless of role and is set to start Wednesday in Cincinnati. Obviously Ryan Helsley would be a candidate given his track record and the need for back-end relievers. My guess is that there could be interest in Nolan Arenado, but that deal would be a little tougher to navigate when you consider the length and financials of his contract. Another name that could attract suitors at the deadline would be Phil Maton. He has proven playoff experience and is on a one-year contract, both of which make him a strong piece to move, I’d argue.
Guerrero: I don’t think there’d be any giving up on Jordan Walker or Nolan Gorman at that point, even if their struggles are obvious. That’s the part about giving young guys “runway.” If the Cardinals are truly committed to that plan, they need to see it through and give those guys a full body of work to see what they have.
KMA in MN: Any chance the Cards might pick up a slightly better middle reliever at some point this year?
Guerrero: If you mean better in the sense of an experienced arm to go into that bullpen added through whatever is on the free agent market or through a trade, I just wouldn’t expect that. I think an added presence would help that bullpen and could be another resource for young guys to learn from, but I don’t think the Cardinals would close a lane for a young reliever by adding someone who may not be part of their future. Those relievers are a part of that young group getting “runway.”
South City Steve: Bullpen woes aside, you could argue that this team is another Gray-level SP and an All-Star middle-of-the-order bat away from being very good. Maybe if a team had, say, $60m sitting around that they hadn't spent, they could spend $30m on both those needs next winter. Especially with another $45m coming off the books in Mikolas/Matz/Fedde/Helsley... assuming they were serious in their desire to be legitimate contenders again.
Guerrero: A couple of things come to mind with your comment. I wonder if that feeling also comes in part because of the overall offense’s strides as a whole under hitting coach Brant Brown. As of this morning, the Cardinals lead the majors in hitting and rank in the top 10 in other categories. Adding a middle-of-the-order presence would, in theory, bolster that even more. Though I’d be curious to see where that would be when you factor in the young players they have in regular roles and how they could be pieces to the Cardinals’ future. Once we get to the end of the season, we’ll have a better sense of who guys are with a full season of work under their them. But maybe another way to look at it is to see if the Cardinals can develop that bat. Yes, that process is a longer one. Free agency could be the quick fix, but the Cardinals haven’t developed a guy like that for quite some time. The guys they thought could be that have had some bumps in their big-league careers. Maybe we have a better sense after this season wraps up?
Guerrero: On the pitching side, another front-of-the-rotation type of starter always helps, no matter which team you’re talking about. The Cardinals could benefit from that. But of the guys you mentioned set to come off the books, losing Helsley and not having a proven relief pitcher you can rely on to close games would be a hit if you’re looking to be serious contenders.
Ken: Hi Daniel. With the lack of healthy pitching depth among other things how long do you think it will take for the team to become a consistent winner again ( meaning playoff contenders) ?
Guerrero: Given the Cardinals' commitment to letting the young guys play, I’d really say the players will tell us the timeline based on performance and development. To kind of piggyback off the response from South City Steve’s submission above, spending on the free agent market is always an option, and there are examples that you can contend that way if you make the right additions. But given the urge to see what this young core can do in the majors, I’d say they will tell us what that timeline looks like. I think once the incoming change in the front office that will see Chaim Bloom step into the president of baseball operations role with John Mozeliak’s retirement becomes official, we will get a better sense of how the Cardinals will approach the free agent market.
chico: We have no other closers,so is there any way to sign Helsley long term? Just anybody can't do that job.
Guerrero: The possibility of a Helsley extension was asked about back during Winter Warm-up. Helsley expressed interest in remaining a Cardinal back in January. Mozeliak gave a response describing wanting to leave a clean slate for Bloom once Bloom takes over the front office, and getting input from Bloom for decisions that could affect the next few years. It feels like there are some moving parts.
South City Steve: That is totally fair because Bloom is taking over. We have waited and waited and waited too many times on prospects under Mozeliak and none of them have ever materialized into that hitter. This organization needs to speed up their evaluation processes of hitters. I'm not suggesting you cut/trade/demote guys like Walker, Gorman, etc., but stop trying to build around them. And certainly stop trying to sell their potential to fans, we can see what is not happening.
Guerrero: Right, no need to jump to those conclusions. We’ve seen them both in the majors for a couple of years now, but they are still young ballplayers. That’s what this season has felt like so far and what it felt like it’d be back when the club announced the “reset/transition.” There’d be a “runway” to see what you have. Are these guys you legitimately feel you can build around, or are they complementary pieces to put around hitters you have to go and get/develop?
Luke: Unless I'm mistaken, I think the Cards are bottom 3rd in the league in attendance. Any talks in the front office or from ownership on how to attract fans?
Guerrero: Looks like the Cardinals are near the middle of the pack in attendance. They rank 14th in attendance per game (28,683) and 11th in total attendance (430,328), per Baseball Reference. Through 28 games, the Cardinals’ attendance per game in 2025 is down, notably from recent years following the pandemic. They averaged 35,532 per game in 2024, 40,013 in 2023, and 40,994 in 2022. I haven’t heard any recent talks from ownership on how to attract fans. But I recall Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III mentioning enhancing the ballpark experience for fans, which I think we’ve seen the team try to do with some of those pregame hype videos and other in-game graphics and such.
chico: You keep talking about the tranition from Mo to Bloom,please tell me that they are communicating now for the future?
Guerrero: Yes, they are.
Timbo02: Evaluation of talent seems to be a big problem in the Cardinals organization. Bloom is set to replace Mo at the top but what about scouting and the input on drafting and signing lower level players? Certainly Bloom will want new eyes and opinions in those areas? Are there any indications of changes in that area coming along with Bloom?
Guerrero: If what we saw this last offseason with the additions of new minor league coaches and coordinators continues, then we can expect there to be more resources on the scouting and drafting side of things under Bloom. The bolstered coaching staff in the farm system was described as the “major heavy lifting” for the minor league overhaul. It filled coordinator roles the Cardinals hadn’t had in previous years. Seeing the direction gives me the indication that there could be more changes to help strengthen all levels of the farm system, including those lower levels.
Mike Eichholz: It appears to me, historically, MLB teams kept prospects in the minors until they were fully developed (physically, mentally, and skill set) even if it took until they reached 26, 27, even 28 years of age. Now it seems that many teams (especially the Cardinals taking it to an extreme their “reset” year), are bringing up younger talented players and letting them complete development as major leaguers. Do you think this is because allowing the players to compete in a more competitive environments increases rate development or is it simply a way for teams to cut costs by filling roster spots with exciting young players.
Guerrero: Some different variables come to mind for me on this one. I think we have more advanced ways to evaluate and develop prospects now than we did before. I feel that speeds up the process to get guys to the majors and gives you the tools to help them develop at that level. Just think about how much we hear about guys going to “labs” over the winter and how they rave about those helping them identify flaws and fix them. I think for players entering pro ball, especially those from the college ranks, they have more exposure as amateurs, which eventually helps them rise through the minors quicker. Even on the youth side, think about the travel ball/showcase circuits. There are downsides to it in my opinion (the cost of it and how it affects families/kids who can’t afford it is one of them), but I think playing with broader talent helps that molding process. I think there is also an urge from teams to get a young core to the majors in hopes they develop together and flourish together. Yeah, I do think some of that is having cost-controlled talent, which is why we see clubs lock up young talent early. In the Cardinals’ case, I don’t think this “reset” is about the cost-controlled aspect. To me, I’ve read the setup as seeing what guys have. Those plates growing together may be a bonus, but seeing what you have and making decisions from there is what this feels like.
DCG: Daniel: What we've seen thus far from Liberatore has been incredibly encouraging and exciting, but it brings up something I thought all along as they Cardinals tried to reform him into a power pitcher. I never got their obsession with velocity--control and movement are so much more important than velocity, especially for a starter, especially for a lefty starter. There are so many examples, including a contemporary, future HoFer Kershaw. We're seeing it now. Liberatore's fastball is nice, but it's not elite, it's not upper-90s. But walking only 2 batters in 31 innings? That is elite. Controlling counts, making batters hit your pitch--all more important than velocity. Why do yo think the Cardinals put so much emphasis on velo with LIberatore?
Guerrero: I think part of their emphasis with velocity for Liberatore comes with seeing that velocity play up in outings. They know it’s there. Now, how do they get that out of him to a point where he sustains it through an outing? I’d argue that comes in part with how the game is played now. Pitchers need velocity. Even Kershaw during his peak was touching 95 mph and hovering around that 94 mph range in the early 2010s. Of course, Kershaw has one of the best curveballs we’ve seen, but he also had some zip behind his fastball before seeing that dip and needing to reinvent himself to sustain longevity. There’s a reason why Kershaw is on the best pitcher of his era, and that fastball life played a role early on. With Liberatore, if he’s in the strike zone, he needs to challenge guys. Fastball velocity will do that. That’s not to say he needs to be a full-on power pitcher, but being able to rear back for some extra zip late into a start or in starts when he’s deep into a season will help him become the pitcher they want him to be. He’s commanded the ball well. Adding that other layer is a part of taking a step forward in his development.
Mike Eichholz: Then a follow up, I think you are probably correct that technology and all the other things you have mentioned are facilitating faster development, but with all the advanced technology, however, shouldn’t they be much better at knowing what they have with each of the players before they promote them to the majors? Maybe it’s just my own bias, but after closely following baseball for the last 40 years or so, it seems teams are much more frequently brining play up players and seeing them fail at the major league level, then sending them back down for more development. This often happens multiple times before they stick, if they ever do.
Guerrero: Perhaps some of those failures come from what we can’t use tech to evaluate, and that’s how players handle the moment. And maybe that’s what the longer time in the minors helps shape, right? You don’t want to lose a guy mentally in the majors if they are not ready for it or find struggles in their initial success. That’s not to say that has been the case with Cardinals prospects who have reached the majors. All this isn’t to advocate for rushing players to the majors. Player development is not linear. That’s true for any level. The minor leagues exist for a reason. There is tons of value in giving a guy time to develop.
Wally: Hi Daniel, thanks for the chat. If the Cardinals finish let’s say .500 for the year, do you see anyway Marmol is brought back? The Cardinals main setback can be attributed to the ridiculous firing of Mike Shildt. I just don’t see him as the answer.
Guerrero: Oliver Marmol is still under contract through 2026. Because of the goal of giving young guys ample opportunities in the majors, I’m not sure the record or box scores would be the best way to evaluate Marmol. If this year is about player development in the majors, there should be a more under-the-hood way to evaluate how Marmol has handled his role as manager. But yes, I see a couple of counters to that point, considering player performance can shape the standings, and how Marmol plays a role in helping shape the young guys as their manager.
Bryan C: If bats play in STL, why was Thomas Saggese sent back to Memphis? Move Arenado to the bench and play Saggeses. It cost the same amount of money. Will Herrera be starting when he comes off the DL? He was hitting. Not starting Saggese makes no sense to me. Mo can find a place for him to start.
Guerrero: 1. Saggese and his bat weren’t going to get much play in the majors. 2. Nolan Arenado was not going to be moved to the bench. If the Cardinals had been able to move Arenado in a trade over the winter, then Saggese would be getting regular at-bats in the majors, but that wasn’t going to be the case with Masyn Winn healthy, Nolan Gorman a regular in the lineup, and Arenado still in ѿý. Saggese needs to get regular playing time wherever he is, hence his option to Memphis. As far as Ivan Herrera’s role when he’s back, I expect him to get starts and fill back into that tandem alongside Pedro Pages.
South City Steve: If you're Bloom, what metrics are you using to evaluate Oli when determining his job status for 2026? To-date there seem to be equal parts positive and negative. The offense as a whole looks better (most nights) and guys like Pallante and Liberatore have ascended. On the flip side, Walker has stalled, Gorman looks the same, and the team is 2-11 on the road. What does Bloom use to decide if Oli is a difference maker, or just a mediocre manager hand-picked by Mo?
Guerrero: As you described, there are layers to this. Marmol came into this reset year with different moving parts around him. Ownership and the front office weren’t going to make any splashy moves in free agency — they inked one (1) — big-league deal. They explored trades for veteran, including their star third baseman and closer. He’s managed this year with a balancing act in a sense of giving young guys regular playing time, but also putting his club in spots to try and win. I don’t think the evaluation is a sum of all of those things, but rather looking at the layers of his role.
DCG: You used the phrase "fastball life," which to me is different from velocity. As you noted, Kershaw topped out around 95, which he rarely touched, and isn't special by modern standards, He lived around 92, 93, but his fastball had life--it moved, and he commanded it along with other pitches.. Max Scherzer, even with his upper 90s fastball, got hit fairly hard his first few years. But once he figured out movement and improved his command? Then he was untouchable. I just think the Cardinals wasted a lot of time looking to tap every MPH out of Liberatore, which wasn't making him successful, instead of focusing on command and movement, which is now making him successful.
Guerrero: That’s a good point that “fastball life” is more than just velo. I took a quick peek into the metrics and Kershaw, from 2015 to 2024 — a span that includes six All-Star seasons — the induced vertical break (IVB) on Kershaw’s fastball never dipped below 17.2 inches, per Statcast. The peak IVB on his fastball during that stretch was 22.8 inches in 2017. (A few side notes: 1. Statcast data for pitches only dates back to 2015. 2. 18 inches of induced vertical break is considered above-average, and an IVB of 20 inches or more is considered elite.) As for Scherzer, he’s never had an IVB above 16.9 inches from 2015 to 2025 — a stretch that includes six All-Star seasons and two NL Cy Youngs. But from 2016 to 2021, Scherzer’s average fastball didn’t dip below 94 mph. Turning to Liberatore, he’s max IVB in a season is 16.5 inches in 2022. He’s ranged from that to a low ot 16.2 inches in 2022 while his fastball has ranged between 93.7 mph in 2022 to 94.7 mph in 2024. With all that data available, I guess what I’m inferring is that Liberatore hasn’t had as much “life” on his fastball in terms of movement as Kershaw has and has been around the same average fastball as Scherzer during some of his best seasons. The way I look at it, adding some extra zip makes up for the movement Liberatore doesn’t get, which is a plus if you’re not sacrificing command. Liberatore has talked a lot about his work on the mental side of things and how that’s played a role with his command, so we should recognize those strides as well. As far as wasting time in his development, I think the start of being that swingman created a bit of cloudiness as to who Liberatore could be in the majors, but seeing him get this runway as a starter now brings clarity and promise.
CrampyCrampaneris: What is the Cards team RISP? Seems like we hit great (lighter of late), but our RISP is deflated. Am I right? Who are the bottom players on RISP and who are the highest? Thanks.
Guerrero: The Cardinals are batting .267 with runners in scoring position, making them fifth-best in the majors and fourth in the National League in that category. That’s a step up from the *checks notes* .229 batting average and 27th rank across the league in those scenarios from a year ago. Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown and his padawans have talked about knowing when there’s a time to hit and a time to slug. It’s apparent that when they have had runners in scoring position, it’s a time to hit.
Guerrero: From an individual standpoint, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are tied for the team lead in hits W/RISP with 12. Donovan’s 12 hits have come in 31 at-bats compared to Nootbaar’s 12 in 38 at-bats. Nolan Arenado (.308 average in 26 at-bats with runners in scoring position) and Pedro Pages (.333 average in 21 at-bats) have also delivered in scoring chances. Though Jordan Walker (.160 average in 25 at-bats), Willson Contreras (.207 average in 29 at-bats), and Masyn Winn (.190 in 21 at-bats) have not had similar production.
Paul W.: You mention the Cardinals "enhancing the ballpark experience" as a way to draw more fans. I can say as one long-time fan, I come to the ballpark first and foremost for the game, not the "experience". I may be an exception, but win or lose, what I want to see is a competitive team, not videos and stats. This club seems closer than a few years back, so there's that. I will also note that they aren't going to get new fans (as in people who aren't currently fans) with fancy videos etc. They need to do something to attract those fans, not just try to hold on to the current ones. Just my thoughts from the cheap seats (because I can't afford the really good ones).
Guerrero: I totally get what you’re saying and where you’re coming from. Growing up in Anaheim, I got to see some quality Angels teams in the late 2000s. After that, the only reason I had to get the cheapest of tickets was to see Mike Trout play and see whatever stars a visiting team had. While the Cardinals try to find their way back into perennial contention, I think those efforts to try and create a more lively ballpark atmosphere are in hopes of attracting the casual fans looking for a night out. From personal experience, I’ve seen that work with fanbases in San Diego and Los Angeles (NL), with the exception being those teams have been some of the bigger spenders in recent years. There’s nothing wrong with being a casual fan or a level of one’s fandom, in my opinion. But like you said, the fans aren’t going to be impressed with bells and whistles if the team isn’t winning on a consistent basis.
DCG: One of the things that works against this is the creation of the rule 5 minor leaguer. You can't just stow a guy in the minors forever unless you put him on your 40 man roster. So, if you draft him as an 18 year old and he hits his 5 years and you still want to develop him in the minors, you've got to put him on the 40 man. We've seen with the Cardinals the logjam that can create--26 on the active MLB roster, plus guys in the IL. Then you often have the two or three non-prospect older safety net guys--guys you bring up when injuries happen because you think they can tide you over for a bit even if they aren't in your long term plans. Then you have your real prospects that you might put on the 40 man because you want them to be the next man up, and now you're down to a few spots. Lots of times teams keep one or two spots open for maneuvering purposes. So, it's not that easy to keep guys past age 23 in the minors if you really believe in their future.
Guerrero: I’m not sure if that necessarily rushes the timeline to majors for prospects as much as this transition for clubs to play younger and faster, but you bring up an interesting angle with the logjam it can create on a 40-man roster. You can even look at the Cardinals’ move this past winter to protect Rule 5 Draft-eligible players for what you described. Two spots were used to protect Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby. Hence was 22 years old, and Roby was 23 at the time of the roster moves. Those are the Cardinals’ two best right-handed pitching prospects, and even though they both were limited by injuries in 2023 and 2024 and both had not yet pitched in Triple-A, you had to protect them or risk them being taken by another club. Those were the right and necessary moves, but you have two 40-man roster spots occupied by guys who need minor league innings. They weren’t going to be rushed to the majors, but it creates some extra maneuvering on the 40-man roster when it comes to the depth you’re going to pull from when it’s needed at the majors.
Bryan C: It was a mistake not trading Fedde in the off season. After the first year back to the MLB from over seas, starting pitchers have a very good year. After that year they go down hill just like Miklos did. Do you agree?
Guerrero: I don’t think not trading Fedde over the winter was a mistake. If they continue to explore a trade there, I think holding onto him and dealing him at the deadline makes sense. That’s when value for pitching is at its highest.
Guerrero: Alright everyone, I think that’s where we’ll end today’s chat. Thanks for your participation. As always, we appreciate your readership. My Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold is in Cincinnati and will have you covered for the Cardinals’ four-game series against the Reds. Coverage can be found here at and in the pages of the Post-Dispatch. Take everyone. Best, Daniel Guerrero.
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