JUPITER, Fla. — Hola. Welcome to today’s Cardinals chat. Post-Dispatch ball writer Daniel Guerrero writing to y’all from Jupiter, Florida. Today is an off-day for the Cardinals. We’re just over three weeks away from opening day and we’ve had the first wave or roster cuts from big-league camp. Minor league camp is going. What do y’all want to talk about?
A transcript of the chat will be available below:
DenMizzou: Hello, Mr. Guerrero. Thanks for the chat. Do the Cardinals see Matz as starting rotation or bust? The team has talked in the past about how effective Matz could be in the bullpen, but they already have three left-handed relievers -- Liberatore, Romero, and King. Liberatore has been much better out of the bullpen, and I don't see the Cardinals carrying four left-handed relievers. So, what happens if, say, McGreevey or Graceoffo pitch better as candidates for the starting rotation?
Guerrero: Steven Matz is being treated as a starter/rotation piece. That’s the way he’s being built up and where he projects to find a role on the Cardinals’ 26-man roster. The three lefties you named figure to have solid roles in the bullpen. Liberatore, as you mentioned, could have some flexibility in the length he may provide or role he fits into as a high-leverage arm. As far as what can happen if McGreevy or Graceffo push their way into the conversation, the Cardinals could explore trades for their starters on expiring contracts.
Illinois cardinals: A key point for this year is to get production out of Gorman and/or Walker. Yet even with the new hitting coach, they have both struck out more than half of their ABs. I realize it's spring training but what's going on? What do you see that helps put my mind at ease?
Guerrero: That’s right. Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman stepping up offensively will be big not just this year but for the Cardinals future amid this transition period. From what we've seen so far this spring, Gorman’s eight strikeouts in 15 at-bats isn’t exactly exciting. His double to the opposite field in his first at-bat Sunday against the Marlins was a positive. It’s one at-bat, but manager Oliver Marmol spoke about Gorman building off of that moment. With Walker, the box score stats don’t jump off the page, but yesterday was a day where the 22-year-old produced some solid swings. He drove in a run on a sacrifice fly and had a deep flyout to the warning track. The exit velocity numbers looked good. The contact is there and, from what Marmol told us postgame, Walker is feeling good about the contact despite the hits not falling at the moment. To me, that’s a good sign for a young guy who has twists and turns to start his career and is coming into 2025 being counted on to step up.
Bob the Subscriber: Hi Dan, thanks for doing the chat. During Hence's only appearance so far, his mechanics were all off compared to previous year. Release height was up, but his extension was down. And he did not pitch well Any word on why? Is this a new strategy that he's still working on w/ the new pitching gurus? Is he hurt? Was he just knocking off the rust?
Guerrero: It may just be knocking off rust and getting into an official game for the first time this spring. Hence doesn’t appear to have had any setbacks when it comes to his health. In the times that I’ve spoken to him since camp began, Hence hasn’t talked about any massive mechanical changes or health issues he is working through. What we saw in the second inning of work allowed him to reset and get a little more settled in.
Ron: I'm little concerned about offense and the pitching
Guerrero: It's still early, but the bats have been slow to start as some guys are still searching for their first hit of the Grapefruit League. On the pitching side, I think the young pitching has been a highlight. Michael McGreevy, Tekoah Roby, Gordon Graceffo, and Quinn Mathews, who was sent to minors camp on Sunday, have had intriguing outings on the main stage.
Aaron Knopf: Thanks for your time. As long as others are asking about Matz, let’s discuss Mikolas. I realize spring training is for trying things, but his first two games don’t give a lot of confidence that his new approach to avoid giving up a lot of hard contact is working. What happens if he is the sixth best pitcher of the starter candidates by the end of the spring?
Guerrero: Even if Miles Mikolas is viewed as the sixth-best pitcher in the rotation, I’d expect him to continue with his spot in the rotation. Mikolas is just two starts (or 4 2/3 innings) deep this spring. Mikolas’ start against the Nationals, where he left in the first inning and returned in the second, didn’t offer much excitement, but we’re still talking about a small sample size.
Max: Given how impressive his spring has been, what does this year look like for Wetherholt? Any early thoughts on when he eventually makes it to أغر؟´«أ½ and where he ends up playing? For someone of his talent, I'm hoping he lands at the position he SHOULD be playing instead of being forced elsewhere because someone's blocking his path (not a shot at anyone in particular, just something we've seen here plenty of times before).
Guerrero: I think Wetherholt is building towards a season that could likely begin with him in Class High-A. He could leap to Class AA quickly given his experience in college. Just looking at the Cardinals’ future and where Wetherholt fits into that, I think he probably sticks at third base down the road especially considering Masyn Winn’s defensive talents as a shortstop. Wetherholt will continue to get time at shortstop. That path should aid his development on defense if he does end up switching positions.
Millo Miller: Daniel,greetings this Monday. I was wondering if you were at the Cardinals game Saturday against the Nationals? In the 7th inning the Nats threw non-roster invite Tyler Stuart. I coached Stuart in Little League and my son played with him here in Central Illinois. I was wondering what your thoughts were if you did see him pitch. He struck out Cisco and Gorman and retired Burleson on a ground ball. Thank you Daniel
Guerrero: I did catch that, but didn’t realize Stuart was from Illinois. The shutdown inning looked fine. Getting outs against Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson — two guys with some big-league time — and getting a couple of swings-and-misses with a changeup heavy approach is solid. Thanks for sharing that unique connection to Stuart.
Ryan: If Gorman is hitting a .143 with more strikeouts than hits at the end of spring training. They going to send him to Memphis? It’s. It not like his glove at 2nd is gold. I’d rather give Sagesse the job for 2 mths and see where things stand.
Guerrero: That would make sense to me if Gorman is still trying to figure things out whether that be mechanics or approach and results aren’t showing through spring. The other part of that scenario in regards to Saggese, there needs to be a clear path for him to play regularly in the majors. Both he and Gorman should be getting as many at-bats as possible wherever they are assigned.
JP in TN: Daniel, thanks for Chat. My question is, Cardinal leadership looks "rudderless" We started with "reset", now we are at "transition" and still listening to the same manager with his apparent change of heart to giving out all these at bats when the previous years, young players get yanked and sent down with a bad game or two. And I don't believe this can be blamed on Arenado. His no trade clause was always going to be problematic but the trio of pitchers, Fedde, Helsley and Matz could have been moved to create paths for young pitchers and the confusion on 40 man roster logjams could have as well. Isn't this clearly a point ownership is not making definitive decisions and this constant, "last dance" has provided a path to nothing more than the middle?
Guerrero: What was expected from a “reset†at the start of the offseason to what actually transpired didn’t exactly match up. Not being able to trade Nolan Arenado is the clearest example of it. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray being clear about their intentions of staying and being a part of this transition also play a role in that. I agree that Arenado can’t be blamed because he has a no-trade clause for a reason. He earned the right to choose where he will spend the rest of his career, so do Gray and Contreras. With the pitchers, I think holding onto them speaks to a couple of things. 1. That the Cardinals do intend to compete this year and 2. They can still look to deal them and try to maximize trade value at the deadline when pitching is at a high cost. I don’t think this says ownership is not making definitive decisions. They were clear about the direction of the club at the end-of-season press conference when they talked about the youth movement. I think how the winter transpired speaks more about the difficulties it was to accomplish the goal of reset for 2025 given the variables with the individual players. The Cardinals fell behind in player development and wanted to catch up with the reset, but I think it’s clear their current commitments had a role in trying to go with the youth movement.
Millo Miller: Daniel, your thoughts on Nolan Gorman. Lots of k's early in spring. Is this reason for concern? With his history of high strikeout rates, I am. I know he worked this winter on some things, but cage work and live game AB's are totally different. I feel for the kid and was wondering if part of the problem could be mental? Hitting a baseball is hard enough, let alone getting in the box thinking about things you have to do.
Guerrero: If the high rate of strikeouts continues as spring goes on, then I would say it is a cause for concern. I don't get a sense that there is a mental side holding him back.
Bryan C: It is time to trade Matz before he gets hurt again. Don't you agree?
Guerrero: No, I don’t think so. You’ve got to see what Matz can give you. Plus, it’s early March. Teams feel they have their answers in-house leaving return for a trade low compared to what you can get when the deadline nears and teams are looking to add final pieces to their roster for a playoff push.
Ken: I’ve seen two games. Team looked uninspired. But VS 2 looked fired up.Hes a plea
Guerrero: Fired up could be a good way to describe Victor Scott II. We’ve seen it on the base paths. He’s worked counts to draw walks, shown some power, and done smaller things on the backfields like a drop a sac bunt in a sim game while facing Sonny Gray.
Curt Flood kid fan: Is Contreras's career as a catcher over? Also, the catcher in AAA who's having success in hitting and defense, does he have much impact on the future of the current two major league catchers
Guerrero: I think we could Contreras behind the plate in an emergency if needed. Expect him to appear at only first base and DH moving forward. I haven’t seen him work with catchers this spring.
Guerrero: Assuming the minor league catcher you’re referencing is Jimmy Crooks, who is in line to be Triple-A Memphis’s starting catcher, I think he provides depth going into this year and he will factor into the big-league equation in the years to come.
Ryan: If the Cards are so fiscally cautious, you’d think they would be moving Matz and Helsley by now. The answer of they think they can compete is flawed. They are not good enough. Everyone knows it. They are so back and forth that’s what makes people question what they are doing. Best guess is they don’t even know.
Guerrero: The other part of exploring trades to lower payroll is to maximize return on prospects. I think there is give and take with that, and the Cardinals could bank on maximizing prospect return to make a deal when demand for pitching is high.
Bryan C: Why does the Cardinals give Luken Baker 500 at bats to see what he can do in the MLB or release him where he can sign with some one else that will?
Guerrero: Those at-bats would have to come at first base or the DH spot, and as it stands, Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson project to get the reps at those roles. Big-league opportunities figure to be limited for Baker. He'll have to maximize those chances when they come his way to create more playing time for himself.
Jackjmn: pretty please, with sugar on top...check with Derrick to see how he displays the chat transcript below the main interface
Guerrero: I've seen how to do this and plan to update this post.
v: Daniel I'm sorry you don't get the "off" day with the players, but am selfishly glad you are chatting today. Walker and Gorman are so important to the Cardinals moving forward that they seem joined at the hip, but I noticed that you made some distinction between them that I agree with. Both were sent down last year, but it seems like Walker earned his way back. To date I don't see that Gorman did that last season and has not so far in ST. In the rather vague scenerio of a "reset" does Gorman still have to earn his way out of AAA, or is that what they mean by "runway"?
Guerrero: First off, I think runway I in this scenario is used as a way to describe a clear path to extended playing time. A way to look at the differences between the two and the runway would be that Walker's runway in right field feels a lot clearer because of the solidified spot there. There are outfielders competing for spots, but Walker’s seems to be the one already filled. I get the sense that Gorman projects to be on the active roster despite the down year because of that upside as a power-hitting infielder and his prominence as a player they feel is a key part of the young core. Because of the inability to trade Arenado, there isn’t much, if any, runway for Gorman to get the playing time at third base. He’ll return to second base duties, but Brendan Donovan being a factor there could leave Gorman as a DH option on some days which means his runway won’t come at one spot on defense.
Tom is here: Do you think Albert will get a shot in Stl.?
Guerrero: I think there’s a chance Albert Pujols gets to manage at some point. Predicting if that comes with the Cardinals would just be a guess from me at this point.
Jack replied Daniel Guerrero: The result of the failure to trade Arenado seems to be that there's not room for both Gorman and Saggese in the starting lineup. If Saggese is producing in Memphis, how long is Gorman's leash before Saggese usurps his place in the lineup? If that happens, what does that mean for Gorman's future?
Guerrero: There are a few side effects of the failure to trade Arenado. Finding room for Saggese is one. Not being able to get Gorman playing time at third base is another. The inability to move Arenado also influences the outfield, assuming Brendan Donovan continues as a regular in left field. And there's also the makeup of the bench when it comes to room for a bench bat for someone like Luken Baker that is impacted. Getting Gorman and Saggese playing time as regulars in the starting lineup appears difficult for the moment. Assuming Saggese opens the year in the minors, I would imagine a promotion for him would only come if there is a guarantee of playing time.
Tom: Wouldn't trading Donavan for some prospects open up playing time for Gorman, Scott, Siani, and maybe Saggese? Seems like that would unjam the logjam and allow for younger players. Donavan will be gone in two years anyway.
Guerrero: Because of the value Donovan provides, I don't think trading him would be the wisest of moves.
MDCardfan: Daniel - Yes, it's spring training and yes, it's early - but this offense looks as unwatchable as it has seemingly been for the last two years. At some point, when guys haven't been able to hit big league pitching for a couple years, maybe they never will. I've got to hand it to Contreras and Gray and Arenado. I have no idea why they'd want to stay on this Titanic of a baseball team…
Guerrero: I think some of the quality of contact for guys who don’t have the box score results yet (like Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar) are some positives. If the metrics look good, that should be a sign the offense can spark. If this slow start rolls over into the next week or so of games and the at-bats don’t look too good, then I think the offense becomes more of a concern.
