There's no need for some rambling preamble to today's chat. Cardinals are a few weeks away from spring training in Jupiter, Florida. They've yet to make a substantive move to add to their roster for 2025, nor have they really advertised any interest in doing so. You've got questions. I'll do my best to provide answers.
At the very least, I can promise to type fast.
Apologies for the delay getting set up.
Away we go.
(As always there will be a transcript below this window that allows you read the chat like any other article here at StlToday.)
Craig: Are we actually close to a resolution on Bregman, opening up a window to trade Arenado, or is the conjecture about the Astros trading Pressly to free up salary wishful thinking?
DG: Why not both? It does appear like there's some a fork in the road arriving for Bregman. Reports out of Houston suggest that they see signing him as a "longshot." I've been told a few times that Boston has a short-term offer to him that is similar to other deals Boras clients have signed so that they reach free agency again in a year or two. The Boston Globe had a similar report. If Bregman goes to Boston, that would eliminate one team we know would be a fit for Arenado, and leave the Cardinals looking elsewhere for that fit. I think that qualifies as a little bit of both. Movement for sure. Toward resolution for sure. Wishful thinking that it hastens things, for sure.
Cardinal Madness: Could the trade of Pressly open the door for Helsley to Houston?
DG: That has not been anything I've heard or been mentioned. Not in January. The Cardinals have been clear about Helsley and they've been clear to Helsley about their plans.
jm: Do you have any idea how other teams are viewing the Cardinals lack of doing anything and being stuck in the middle of a sticky situation?
DG: I do. Empathetically, mostly. Some are enjoying it after years of seeing the Cardinals avoid it.
Cardinal Madness: So is there a chat today?
DG: There is indeed!
Jim fan since 64: Just a comment.... not a question....I enjoyed your podcast last week about the wages or salaries in baseball. I believe you and Jeff helped me understand a few things about the different thoughts about a salary cap and or a salary floor. I did like the thought of using draft picks as a way to compensate smaller market teams that can't or won't spend money for the free agents. Thanks again, as always enjoy the chats.
DG: Thank you for giving the podcast a listen. I really enjoyed that conversation with Jeff Gordon.
DT 2024: MAGA!!!!!!!!!!! ICE is coming!!! Choke on it!
DG: Welcome to the baseball chat. Winter is already here. Spring is coming.
Cardinal Madness: Bees!?
DG: How my parents reacted to my report card?
It's going to be that kind of chat, is it?
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: Who are some potential candidates to replace Manfred?
DG: There are several members of his staff that come to mind. Dan Halem and Morgan Sword are names to know if you're interested in the future of the commissioner's office for MLB.
Ken: Good morning Derrick. How long do you think it will take for this team to return to sustainable success.
DG: Got to be honest with this: We'll know a lot more in the next 60 days. That's not ideal, I know. If they start the season with Nolan Arenado, then they're closer to contending in the NL Central than if they don't. On paper. If they get the performances they expect from Walker, Nootbaar, and one other young player (Burleson, Gorman, TBD), then the offense has the chance to be what it wasn't last year, and what it wasn't last year completely cost them a shot at the playoffs. That puts them closer to contending in the immediate future. Sustainable? They're going to have to make strides with pitching, with young pitching, and it seems like they're within 12 months of that, helped along by the draft. A conservative estimate? They have blips of contending, moments where they will maybe catch lightning, but the sustained contending ...
I want to be honest here.
I'm not sure how they avoid the sine wave of contending, downturn, retool, contending, downturn, retool. That seems to be the new reality they're entering, especially if they tie spending to the rise of draft picks and contending means lower picks, etc.
bob: How much of a performance-based leash do Mikolas & Matz have with McGreevy and Matthews (and maybe Robberse, Graceffo, Hence, and Roby) ready to step into the big league rotation? If one of them has 4.75 ERA on June 1, will the team figure out a way to take them out of the rotation? i.e., move them to the pen, give them a release, send them to the gentleman's IL for the rest of the season?
DG: In your scenario how good are the young pitchers? Better than the starters you mentioned or ... just young and they benefit, in your opinion, from not being the starters who mentioned, and that's the only prerequisite.
Let's pick this apart: First, longtime chatters will know the use of "leash" is to avoided, and I appreciate if you'll do that. Second, there isn't some litmus test ERA, and if it is it's not going to be 4.75. Average ERA this past season was 4.08, and there weren't many pitchers who had the innings to qualify for the ERA race with an ERA higher than 4.75. Replacement level, per se, is going to be higher than that, and a team isn't going to make a decision based on ERA as much as other factors. Fourth, there is not gentleman's IL, and MLB has really become more proactive when it comes to suspicious use of the IL. There are requirements and proof that must be provided in many cases. Now, pitchers are always dealing with something, sure, but the activities of teams caught the attention of their rivals and the commissioner, so that process has improved over the past several years, just FYI.
Yes, I skipped over third.
Third, regarding your reference to June 1 as some kind of date, well, this might be where you climb back aboard this answer.
The Cardinals go into spring training open to the notion that McGreevy may outpitch other candidates for the rotation and force his way into that. That is possible, and they'd be cool with it. If Mathews does that, they'll likely look at a different kind of rotation than a five-man look, but they're not closing off that possibility either. If the young starters make their case and the Cardinals want to get them innings and commit to them -- as they've said this year is about -- then they're going to explore trades for the veterans during spring. As mentioned in Sunday's Post-Dispatch, that is part of the plan: If they have depth there and a young pitcher they want in the rotation, they'll look to trade a veteran at a time when teams are aching for innings.
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: What odds would you place on MLB experiencing a work stoppage in 2027?
DG: High at this point. Expansion could come to the rescue, though.
Sarasota Bob: If Arenado is not traded, does this mean that Nolan Gorman plays 2B, Brendan Donovan goes to LF and Nootbar to CF? Maybe not the best defensively with Siani sitting...but we need to develop the core of Gorman, Donovan and Nootbar as the priority, right?
DG: That is indeed what the Cardinals will look to do, and that's already being discussed. Also, it's possible that Nootbaar plays center even if Arenado is traded and Gorman is the starting third baseman. That is something the Cardinals plan to look at during spring training, and the offensive performance of Siani or Victor Scott II will be factors.
CDP: Hi Derrick. Thank you for your contributions. Your chats are a welcome addition to my Mondays.
In the past, you have detailed the Cardinals approach towards the international signing period, and how they rarely get involved in the top tier or top rated prospects because they prefer to allocate their bonus pool across more prospects vs a few, higher rated ones.
My question(s). Is this an organization approach or a Mozeliak approach? With Bloom taking over next season, do you forsee a potential shift in the model? It seems as though the Rays and Red Sox were much more frequently mentioned as teams that were interested in the top of the international market players during Bloom's tenure with those teams.
Thanks!
DG: Thanks for the kind words. That's an organizational approach after some experience with the higher-dollar signings during Luhnow's tenure that did not work out. Back in 2008, the Cardinals signed a third baseman to a $1.1 million bonus that they advertised as their first big assertion of being a player in the international market, and doing so with a seven-figure, auction-win way. Five years later, they released that player and I'm not sure Robert De La Cruz is a name that leaps to mind when you look back on the prospects of that era. But Oscar Taveras and Carlos Martinez certainly do, and they were in the bonus realm that the Cardinals felt was their sweet spot.
Inflation happens, so this year the Cardinals do have a seven-figure bonus, but also a wider class of signings with similar traits that they feel increases their odds of producing talent. Specifically to your question, this is an organizational approach that is overseen by assistant general manager Moises Rodriguez, who was a big a part of expanding the Cardinals presence in several countries and has been involved the past year-plus in the day-to-day of the department he led before moving to AGM.
I don't see some substantive shift from that because even under Bloom the Cardinals appear like they're going to use quantity to find quality because they cannot afford (ahem) to go big and not land the talent, and the risk is so great that's what will happen, setting them back.
tom: The ownership has mentioned that we will see the shift towards youth as part of the gameday experience. Do you have any insight as to what they mean by that? Will there just be posters of Masyn Winn lining the streets instead of Paul Goldschmidt? Or will it be more than that? Thanks.
DG: It will be more than that. They're working to change some factors at the ballpark. They're looking at some of the modern entertainment elements that teams use elsewhere. We already saw glimpses of that in the closing days of the regular season -- with video elements of the scoreboard, the Helsley entrance, and there's going to be some tech improvements around the ballpark. There's also going to be areas for "gathering" -- those open spots where there aren't seats and the ballgame is backdrop to hanging out. We'll get more details on this, too, in the coming months.
Tackleberry: Siani feels like one of those guys the Cardinals FO falls in love with and they won’t bother to look at the reality of the situation and then in mid-May he has two highlight reel catches but is batting .146. Is he a dude or Mo forcing one of his guys on Marmol?
DG: Oliver Marmol has been a champion for starting Michael Siani, siding with defense, and he's been pretty public about this because of the defensive factor. To me, it will be interesting if the opposite of what you suggests happens -- if the front office nudges the lineup toward offense and wants to get at-bats for Nootbaar or someone in center.
Keith Hernandez Follower: Why do I keep hearing Boston as a landing spot for Arenado? Cora said Devers is not moving off 3b. Do the metrics show Devers as a better fielder than Arenado? Would Nolan waive his no trade clause to play first base or DH?
DG: I would imagine you keep hearing it because it's a possibility. I'm not sure what Cora said or why he said it, but Devers would move off third base. He'd move to first or move to DH. When it comes to third base, Devers is an excellent hitter. He's a minus-fielder. He's been a minus-9 and a minus-13 at third baseman in the past few years, and he's substantial below average when compared to his peers.
The comment I saw from Cora was that they would talk to Devers before making that move, not the media. But there's no way Devers is at third if Arenado is in Boston. That would be poor management.
openyoureyes: Cardinals winter....yaaaaawwwwwwwnnnnn
DG: Sure makes for lively chats, though!
Keith Hernandez Follower: Do you feel like history has shown us teams get better returns for free agents at the deadline or prior to a season starting?
DG: The deadline. Yankees rebuilt on the fly with the returns they got at the deadline for two elite relievers.
Redfred77: Who are the Cards going to groom as the closer for when not if Helsley leaves? Any of the up and coming youngsters fit the pattern?
DG: Internally, they've viewed JoJo Romero has the closest to taking over. They're open to Fernandez, Liberatore, or possibly O'Brien or Graceffo also making that case, just to name some of the candidates. That's not to leave anyone out, just giving you a sense of the directions they'll be forced to go -- and the relievers who could have the hothand at the time and take over.
openyoureyes: Here's to hoping the Cards don't deal Donovan. Seems like he is highly sought after and teams are thinking of getting him while he is undervalued. He's the epitome of a Cardinal type ballplayer
DG: They are, to date, not interested in trading Donovan, and they have ignored attempts from teams to make offers.
Phil: Hi there, Derrick. If the Cards can't find a suitor for Arenado, do you think there's a chance they'd trade a younger guy who they thought would get more playing time with Arenado gone (this could be Gorman, Donovan, Saggese, even Burleson if keeping Arenado creates more of a DH crunch)? Most likely would seem to be Gorman, who I'd think could still bring back some value in a deal this Spring, as well as getting more of a chance to prove himself in a lineup that doesn't have his primary position taken up by a future HOFer.
DG: That is not the plan, no. That would not achieve either of the Cardinals' goals -- which is to cut salary and clear playing time for a young player. They would a) not be reducing much salary and they would be b) trading the player they're trying to avoid losing to watch him perform for another team. Such a move would be completely against everything they've set forth as their goals for this offseason and for this season, and that only reinforces that the trade is about reducing payroll. Start there.
GoBirds: Hi Derrick, do you think this is the most the word “if†has ever been said in a single offseason?
- IF the starting pitching is good - IF Walker and Gorman can put it together -IF the Cardinals trade Arenado etc.
DG: I do not. But I realize my view on this doesn't play well on hot-take theater or social media.
Every team builds its season around if.
Every team builds its season around hope.
These are phrases that play well on the Internet -- "hope isn't an approach" or "hope isn't a plan" or "if isn't ... yadda yadda yadda." Show me a professional sports team and I'll show you the hope in their plans and the if in their expectations.
The Dodgers sure hope Shohei Ohtani stays healthy and that he's able to pitch like an ace again. If the Dodgers get the innings from him and Yamamoto they will be able to lean less on Sasaki and likely get more from him. That's an IF, too. They also hope their defense works out because a porous defense means more innings on a rotation that they sure hope doesn't have to shoulder too much extra work.
Tackleberry: T/F: the Cardinals will not sign/acquire a 9-figure contract in the next 3 years?
DG: I have no idea. Sure seems like if they don't then their plan has gone sideways because they haven't develop a homegrown player they want to sign to a significant extension.
Jock Ewing: Derrick - If Arrenado returns, is Gorman the 500 AB second baseman/DH?
DG: That is the most likely scenario, yep.
Jacob K: Randomly looked at Matt Williams baseball reference page this morning and Nolan Gorman popped up as most similar for the age 24 season, I'm guessing the Cardinals would be pretty happy if Gorman turns out to be that type of player!
DG: That's a fascinating comp. You be they would. Thanks for sharing that discovery. Could spend a day mining Baseball-Reference for such gems.
Me: Is this chat on a pitch clock?
DG: Yes.
Heath: Is this basically Mo not wanting to do anything drastic (or at all) to the roster because Chaim's taking over next season and everyone's just basically auditioning to stay on the roster for his regime?
DG: That's a lot of it yes.
Explored that approach, that reasoning in Sunday's Post-Dispatch, if you're interested.
Cardinal Madness: Last year Molina was suppose to be part of the coaching team with occationally being in the dugout. What happened and will he be involved this year to that extent?
DG: First, some clarification. Molina was not going to be on the coaching staff. He was hired to be a special adviser to the front office, and that meant that he would have some roles in the minors and maybe even offered insight from a scouting viewpoint. Mozeliak has, in the past, liked to include former players for a while in front office discussions and meetings so they can see if that has interest to them for a future role. What happened? Well, every attempt the Cardinals made to schedule Molina for an appearance or invited him to be a part of it, he had some other commitment. He also had some family matters happening throughout the year that he wanted to address and be present for. So, the Cardinals would approach him about doing something, about making an appearance, about joining them here or going there, etc., etc., and Molina and the club couldn't make their schedules or is availability mesh. That simple.
South City Steve: My sincere hope with Bloom's ascent to the big chair next fall is that it puts a nice bow on the Mozeliak Era, the last 21 years, and most importantly gets the DeWitts to stop looking backwards all the time. The two of them will need neck braces soon if they whip their necks around anymore to reference past success as some sort of justification for the current state of the team. 2026's slogan should be "Cardinals baseball, let's live in the now and look to the future!"
DG: Noted.
Should they take down the pennants, just so we're not looking at history at the ballpark either? That would be a bold move, but it would definitely put an emphasis on the Cardinals looking forward for their brand -- not relying on their history.
Nick: Hi Derrick, hope you’re staying warm. I find it very weird that the team keeps saying “youth movement reset, youth movement reset, youth movement reset†while the rotation and pen are all older and they refuse to trade Fedde or Helsley because they want to compete with a 73-83 win roster. Does no one else hear this dissonance?
DG: Everyone else does. Including the team.
Refuse is a strong word. They'll trade those players. They just don't want to be seen as urgent or sell at a low price. They want to maximize the return because that is also part of any reset. Getting more young players and fortifying the farm system through trade is a vital part of any "reset," as you know.
What is happening here is twofold. 1) They had a few players decline to waive their no-trade clauses and prefer to stay, so they had to shift what they expected to accomplish with the roster.
2) One way to really capsize a team and perhaps undermine the development of players is to leave it constantly chasing innings. One way to create stability for a young offense to grow, a young defense to mature, and young talented hitters to play consistently is to start a team with the known quantity of innings. Long time readers have seen me stand on this soapbox before. And I like to think the experience of 2022 and 2023 only proved my point. The Cardinals are bracing themselves for the trials of youth -- the ups, the downs -- and one way to commit to that offensively is to know what you're going to get pitching wise. There's logic to that, even if it seems like a disconnect, and the club acknowledges that.
bob: Going into '24 the message, on repeat, was this is a team that is primed to pivot if things went sideways. The '24 season was a failure. But now, instead of pivoting, THEY'RE TRYING TO COMPETE AGAIN instead of making literally zero additions to the big league team. Sorry I do not believe anything they say about clearing the deck for Bloom. I won't be surprised if Mo trades Wetehrholt for a rental closer if thats what Mo thinks will get him the WC in his last season.
DG: Ownership would not sign off on that move, so ... Yeah, not happening. You're seeing a way different approach than their actions are telling you, shouting out to the world.
dacus811: Is Yadi still special assistant to the GM/POBO and do you think he will be when Bloom takes over?
DG: That role is open to him this season, but there's been no formal statement. Molina was in the process of moving this offseason and he's got the manager role with the winter ball team, so expect that conversation at some point. I'm sure that ownership will find a place for Molina if he wants an advisory role. Bloom gets the history here, and he's heard of Yadier Molina, rest assured.
Cardsfan: If Aronado is traded one of the first player controversies will be center field. Even during the recent winter warmups Marmol was praising Ciani for 2025, Even though a lot of baseball people see a higher ceiling for Victor Scott.
DG: Those two things can exist at the same time. The manager can praise a player he has and also see a higher ceiling for another player at the same position. Marmol praised Brendan Donovan at second, and yet baseball people believe that JJ Wetherholt has a higher ceiling, and I bet you don't see a contradiction there at all. Same here in CF with one twist.
Lars Nootbaar could play center, too.
David J.: Derek: Recently, Mo said that trading Arenado was his 1st, 2nd and 3rd priorities, and until they trade him, the team would not be able to sign additional players. Mo sounded desperate to me. Soon after, owner DeWitt clearly contradicted Mo, stating that he had authorized management to sign additional pitchers, and that if they ended up not being able to trade Arenado, the team was still in a good spot financially. He stated that Arenado had not demanded a trade, and therefore if they couldn't trade him, so be it. DeWitt sounded much less desperate to me. The difference in communication between Mo and Dewitt is curious. Why has Mo hung the "I am desperate to trade Arenado" sign around his neck? It may be true, but it does not look like a good negotiating strategy to me. On this issue, DeWitt's communication strategy seems much smarter. What did you make of these very different messages?
DG: If John Mozeliak did not acknowledge his attempts to trade Nolan Arenado when the media knows it, the fans know it, and the player knows it -- how would that look? He would be misleading the fans, he would be saying something to the media that reporters like me could quickly point out was false in the next sentence, and he would be putting all of the onus on the player to do the same when all parties know it's not the case. It's just not realistic for him to deny the obvious.
He didn't change his negotiating strategy at all. Other teams pay attention. They read the coverage, the know what reporters are asking, and they talk directly to the team about motives. Mozeliak not acknowledging what he as trying to do would be akin to telling us the sky is yellow. I believe the kids call it gaslighting. And you'd be furious if he did that, I imagine.
Mozeliak has said exactly what DeWitt also said: That Arenado has not asked for a trade. That they are OK if he returns to them and Mozeliak went so far as to say that he doesn't expect spring to be an issue with him and Arenado if that's the case. And, new over the weekend, Mozeliak said ownership gave him some flexibility to pursue free agents and add a reliever or two to the payroll, and the ownership expanded on that. Through the years, it's not unusual for Mozeliak to let ownership share publicly what they've shared with him. That appears to be what happened this past weekend.
JB: The Cardinals have said they are exploring a trade of Arenado to trim payroll and open up opportunities for younger position players. But do they also think that the team would be better without Arenado now and in the upcoming years than they would be with him?
DG: That's an interesting question, and I haven't heard that as an answer. To be honest, I haven't really asked it that question. I did when it comes to the immediate season, here in 2025. And the view was that he makes them better for this coming year. But that's not their focus. The focus is investing playing time now for the young position players to be better in 2026 and 2027 and so on ... One part of the interest in trading Nolan Arenado is getting him closer to a championship. In a way, it's more about what he wants -- and why he came to the Cardinals in the first place -- and respecting that while achieving their payroll trims. That said, there's a undercurrent with some members of the organization that they'd like to have Arenado around and let him be part of the turnaround because he's been candid about how his performance is part of why the Cardinals are in this spot, so why not be a key part of the return?
DCG: Derrick: I think your podcasts this off-season have been the strongest of the entire run, and I've listened to almost all of them. I appreciate the way you have been drilling down on the Cardinals as an organization, examining where they are, where they're trying to go, how they got to this point, etc. from a variety of different angles and with different guest input. Awesome. One question I have, and you've probably addressed this somewhere at some point, is that when the Cardinals had their "reset" presser, had they already spoken to Contreras and Gray? Were they surprised that those two wanted to stay? Do you think they would have preferred each being open to being moved in order to give more opportunity to younger players (along with salary relief)?
DG: Thank you for listening to the podcast.
They had talked to the players, yes. They spoke with both of the players in the closing week of the season, and also the players were talking amongst themselves about it, in some corners. Sonny Gray mentioned that, and a few players even referenced the direction they could be going in their "exit" interviews with the media. You may recall that at the time. With about 12 days or so to go in the season, the whole tone of the clubhouse shifted. Mozeliak and Arenado met in person in Colorado during the next-to-last road series. Mozeliak had talks with the other players. What wasn't known at the "reset" presser was whether the players would want to go elsewhere. Mozeliak circled back to all of the players in the weeks that followed the reset to get their feel for that.
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: Good afternoon, Derrick. Thanks for your time and for engaging the masses. Question regarding: Helsley/Fedde. If I'm a team looking to trade for either pitcher, wouldn't I offer more today than at the deadline? If I trade for Fedde, I'm hoping to get 32 starts + postseason from him. If I wait til the deadline, I'm trading for ~14 starts + postseason. It just seems as though the potential for greater prospect return exists now, injury risk aside.
DG: Maybe, but not necessarily. The thing about spring training, is every team thinks it has the answers in-house, and that it's going to get a performance or complete health, and everything is all sunshine and roses and roster spots. Trade for Helsley or Fedde and that's a roster spot you're not going to have open at this time. There's no IL to save you. That changes with the harsh reality of the season hits. Injuries happen. Young players expected to advance in spring struggle through summer. And so on and so on. Oh, and pressure intensifies. So, while you look at deals now as being able to get more teams involved in the talks, there isn't much urgency to those moves -- unless it's a specific player they want (Goldschmidt, in the Cardinals' case a few years ago, for example). The higher return is going to be when a team has a clear need, the clock is ticking, there are limited number of teams looking for that player, and there are limited number of players available. That's the trade deadline. That is when urgency and need crest, and deals are likely to be their highest return. That's the bet the Cardinals are making.
Bob the Subscriber: Why will the team try to trade Arenado to make room for Gorman at third (and the further downstream effects re Donovan, Noot, CF), but McGreevy, Thompson, Libratore, and Matthews have to outperform a veteran starter to get a place in the rotation? Especially where 2 veteran starters have poor track records?
DG: Because Arenado is open to being traded. Mikolas has a no-trade clause and he has said he intends to stay with the Cardinals. And Fedde or Gray are a great values for a team looking to reduce costs. That's pretty much why. Also, please see my answer earlier about how spring could bring new willingness to trade starters.
Karl: Thanks for the chat DG! Let's assume we're willing to eat $15m-$20m of Nolan's contract and an acceptable trade emerges. What kind of return should we expect?
DG: You don't have to assume that. That is about where the starting point is for teams, that the Cardinals would cover at least that much, because they did add that $15 million to his deal. They'll get a lower-level, high-risk player back. This isn't going to be a prospect haul for the Cardinals. There's some belief they'll get a pitcher with the metrics/traits they feel they can draw more from, but isn't some surefire talent/prospect.
Tackleberry: In my head a “reset†would have involved acquiring more prospects.
DG: Probably in their meetings it did, too. When a few players say, no thank you, they'd like to stay, obviously the approach has to change a bit, no?
Joe: Derek, great chat as usual. thank you. Curious, if you asked Mo how many games the Cardinals "model" to win each year, would he tell you? I would to hear Mo/Chaim tell the fans we are "modeling to win 93 games" and at this time, we believe this 25 man roster is built to do that...
DG: I like how you've presented this question. He volunteered that information when he was talking about how the league has changed -- or is changing. He brought up 90 wins as one measure. This goes back a few years, but while talking with Bill DeWitt Jr. in his office, he brought up getting into the playoffs as the target and winning the division. I asked him if they needed to raise the number of wins they chased because it rarely took as few as 90 to win the division, and with several teams tanking the average to win the division was closer to 95, if not above. His answer was that, yes, the Cardinals needed to up their target win total, and that 95 might be more reliable. Mozeliak has, through the years, referenced both 90 and 95 as target goals.
Are you ready for how this might come up now, or definitely will in the coming years?
Let's discuss a concept of payroll efficiency.
That is, essentially, the return on the dollars spent, and where is the most efficient place to do that. I'll give you a tangible example for the Cardinals at this point, given what they're describing.
Consider the Cardinals see their roster currently as an 82-win team. If they go make a play for a starter who makes $15 million in each of the coming three years, and they belief that addition is worth 3 wins to them, that makes them an 85-win team. Is that money better spent on turning an 82-win team into an 85-win team or investing it elsewhere, like on development, so that when they make a move for the 3-win pitcher that costs that much they're doing it to turn a 92-win team into a 95-win team? This is, at the bedrock level, what they're talking about when they say they're scaling back spending now because the gap to get to 95 is not going to be covered, and when they say they'll add to payroll later, they're talking about "timing" it when the move vaults them higher in the 90s, not higher in the 80s.
This is obvious an area of debate, and you don't have to buy into it. I'm just illustrating how the Cardinals are viewing it -- and what to look for in their modeling.
JB: Would you have ever thought when the Cardinals traded for Nolan Arenado that they would be looking to trade him away to cut payroll a few years later?
DG: No.
Simple.10: DG - We hear, as a partial reason for their accumulation of talent, that the Dodgers have a great player development program. If that’s true, are other teams hiring people away from the Dodgers?
DG: The Cardinals did, so yep. The Dodgers also pay well, and they have playoff shares to add to those salaries, so they are doing what it takes to keep people, too.
SLS: What did you think of Jay Jaffe's attempt to reckon with pitch framing as a metric and how it led him to vote for both McCann and Martin for the HOF?
DG: I found it, like everything Jay writes, compelling, and I appreciate his honesty as he sorted through it, arrived at his decision, and then defended it. That level of transparency from a voter is to be applauded, and we're all better voters thanks to the work that Jay does, whether we have the same votes or not. He has made us all better at voting.
Joe: To your previous comment on "building the club to winning X number of game" I would say Chaim's job is to build a team that, with a high degree of confidence --80%, will reach 93 wins. going into opening day at 83 wins seems like a fail, that is the GMs job to "back into" the desired win floor. to me, top of the house KPIs that are used in business every day, would expected runs scored, expected runs allowed, and WINs. This dashboard could be reviewed on a weekly basis. Longer conversation, but the similarities to busines real world business cases and the Cardinals are not that different.
DG: I don't think 93 wins is enough. But let me do the legwork to prove it.
We don't have a decade of data to pull from due to the pandemic and the changes to the schedule in the past few years, but a quick look at the recent standings and trends, and yep, 93 ain't going to cut it.
93 wins would have won the division outright only once in the past four seasons. The average wins are 93.25 for the NL Central division winner. And all that gets you is another round of the playoffs to deal with, and one more layer of unpredictability in the playoffs.
To finish in the top two of the NL and get that bye round, it's taken at least 95 wins twice in the past seasons and more than 100 wins the other two times for an average of 97.75. It sure seems like if you're going to be an NL leader and take aim at being a favorite for October, the win total has to be dialed up to 95 at the least, and 98 might be the better play.
Of course, that would mean raising payroll.
Evil Calvin: That 82 to 85 win increase and the 92 to 95 win increase sounds like more of that analytic nonsense which has plagued the Cards for years. Just play the game and put the talent out there. You can't predict incremental wins.
DG: You actually can. The industry is built around it -- and has been for a long time. They used different measures, but you can bet that Whitey Herzog and Branch Rickey were also building teams with that same notion of how many wins does this move make us better.
It's definitely analytic.
Time has shown it's not nonsense, and only teams eager to fall behind are ignoring it. Which is to say none are.
Ed AuBuchon: Was there a explanation of why Chaim Bloom wasn't at the Winter Warmup.
DG: Yes. He has mostly stayed out of the public eye and public comments and public interviews out of deference to Mozeliak's final year and also the attention that is then going to the other new hires, like Rob Cerfolio and Larry Day. Cerfolio participated in a panel at Winter Warm-Up.
Phil: Hey Derrick, when the Cards traded JD Drew back in 2003, he was 27 years old, coming off two sub-3.0 bWAR seasons, with a total of 17.2 bWAR over the previous 5 (peaked at 5.5 in 2001). Nolan Arenado is currently 33 years old, coming off two sub-3.0 bWAR seasons, with 18.1 over the past 5, one of those being the shortened 2021 season (peaked at 7.7 in 2022). Dealing Drew and Eli Marrero netted the Cards two solid relievers *plus* a top SP prospect in Adam Wainwright. When you describe the potential return for Arenado being "a lower-level, high-risk player," how much of that difference from 20 years ago is about a difference in how teams value established talent and their own prospects; and how much is the age difference, and that Atlanta saw a higher future ceiling from Drew vs Arenado potentially being into his age-related decline?
DG: It's all of those things. You outlined it well. Six years age gap is huge -- especially when six years of service time is a free agent, not mention six years of age is different at any age. Let me just repeat that part. It is every single one of those things. And it's also cost. J. D. Drew had a one-year deal. Cardinals were getting years of control in all of the players they received, but they also were cutting salary, as you recall just a far smaller slice than they're looking to trim this time. Like I said, I think you outlined the reasons well, and as I type this I'm just having a hard time even connecting the two trades because the industry is different, the situations are different, and while some of the stats look the same, there are more overwhelming differences than similarities.
JB: Who is the best defensive first baseman on the Cardinals' current roster?
DG: Brendan Donovan.
cardsfanintheozarks: Hi Derrick,
DG: Hello.
James: Hi Derrick. I know you love London. My wife and I are planning a trip to London and England next year. Any places in London (not the obvious tourist destinations) you would recommend?
DG: Go to St. Martin's in the Fields for tea in the crypt. It's not as hidden or secret as it used to be. But it's still worth it, and it's a great place to launch a walking tour from there - or end one. I'm a fan of going to Hatchard's, grabbing a book, and then settling into a nearby pub. Also, Battersea is off the path and worth visiting, especially if you're a music fan. You can't go wrong really -- and do hit up all the obvious tourist destinations. They're obvious for a reason because they're grand.
South City Steve: One of the problems with being in a baseball rebuild is there is not that instant gratification of the draft. NBA and NFL franchises that are in down years can at least distract themselves with the idea that Cooper Flagg or Travis Hunter could be in their uniform and making an impact next fall. Look at a guy like Hence, he was drafted 4 years ago and still hasn't pitched an inning at AAA. I think that's why avoiding free agency is a bad PR move by the Cards (imagine that), you need a branch to cling to in a mudslide season like this. Why not sign Scherzer and maybe have a great 1-2 punch to go along with a lottery ticket offense?
DG: Mostly because Max Scherzer has a say, too.
The Cardinals cannot Jedi mind trick a free agent to take their offer. Players pay attention, too.
Cardinal Madness: If the young players rebound I wouldn't be shocked to win 90 games, if they don't 65 games seems like the floor. What type of a range could you see starting the season.
DG: That is both ambitious on the top end and dramatic on the bottom end. I'd narrow it up a bit by 3 on the top and 8 on the bottom. And call it a range.
Jim from DeBary FL: With the West Coast teams, especially the Dodgers, seeming to be the most attractive and successful in attracting the top talent Asian players, is it wise that the Cardinals place much emphasis on scouting over there. I was hoping Nootbaar's notoriety might help the Cardinals in their recruitment of the higher quality Asian players. I do realize the Cards have recruited a couple potential talented Asian players that are currently in the minors. Still it is depressing that the Cards seem to lack any chance with the bigger talent over there.
DG: You hit on the internal debate the Cardinals have had for years, honestly. Matt Slater, who was in the front office, was a champion of the market and seeking out talent in it. And the Cardinals do have a couple of prospects that they signed from Asia as amateurs, that should be part of this discussion, too. The Cardinals don't want to be left out of a market, just in case, take the chance, see what happens, but the cost-benefit is an ongoing discussion within the Cardinals front office, and at some point it will be interesting to hear where Bloom is going to side. The Cardinals cannot change their geography. So can they change their appeal? And how?
cardsfanintheozarks: Do you know of any study showing potential long-term benefits to catching one-knee down vs both feet in the dirt? Seems to me like the new style of catching should help extend catchers careers, with reduced wear on the knees. Second question, we've heard of the Red Sox interest, but how about the Mets. It appears that Mets are pivoting away from Alonso. Looks like Arendo would be a nice fit at 3rd...
DG: I don't -- and that's in part because of the newness of this widespread use. I guess we could go back to Pena and Santiago, but it sure seems like we'd be focused on anecdotal evidence not a huge data set. I like that you bring that up! Maybe we're in the middle of building enough information to someday know.
The Mets are one of the teams that the Cardinals have talked to about Arenado. It's just unclear if they made much progress with them. That is either because my reporting has been unable to push for more details (I'll keep trying) or because they didn't get much traction. There were a few teams, notably the Yankees, that wanted the Cardinals to pick up more salary and take on most of the financial cost before talking trade.
Bryan C: Arenado and Helsley to the Red Sox seems to me like a perfect fit. They have some good prospects. I know Mo would not be able to get any of their top 15 prospects but what do you think about a trade with Boston?
DG: It would be quite a gamble for the Cardinals to hitch Helsley to Arenado and not look to trade Helsley alone to maximize the return. Like you said, not getting a top-15 prospect from a team isn't the route to go here. Separating the two players allows the Cardinals to make a money deal for Arenado and then push for the highest-talent return for Helsley. For a team in a "reset" that makes the most sense. Don't make Helsley part of the deal that cuts salary.
If they do, then goodness ... they're opening themselves up for real scrutiny as to their motives and how they got in that spot.
Chris: The discussion at the Winter Warm Up on new college eligibility rules for JUCO and the impact of NIL was fascinating. Any plans to dig into that in an upcoming Podcast on how it will change the future drafts?
DG: For sure. When the opportunity arises.
James: That sounds great! We’re looking forward to it. Thanks Derrick!
DG: Enjoy!
Jim from DeBary FL: I seem to recall that Bloom's time in Boston wasn't as successful as his time in Tampa Bay, which Boston was initially counting on. I thought the lack of success in Boston was more a result of not being in philosophical alignment with Boston ownership. Is the St Louis ownership closer to the philosophy of Boston or Tampa Bay?
DG: When someone is hired and told immediately to trade one of the best players in baseball and one of the best homegrown players ever from an organization, you can imagine that isn't the best foot to start on. Imagine for a moment if Mozeliak was hired on Halloween 2007 and told to trade Albert Pujols. He would be against that, just as Bloom was likely against trading Mookie Betts, but ownership sets the expectations -- and that's what it means to accept the job. Actions suggest that the Cardinals ownership want to be closer to Tampa Bay than Boston, and that is just going to thrill readers of this chat no end.
Typhoon of questions on Cardinals acting like a small-market team in 3
2
1
(In reality, Cardinals ownership will tell you they aim to be a blend of those two organizations.)
Bryan C: Luken Baker, is their not a team that would want to try to trade for him? I think he might do really good if someone gave him a long look as a DH, 1st baseman and pinch-hitter?
DG: There are -- most likely from Asia. There was at least one team overseas that had interest, too. The Cardinals have kept him on their roster for the moment and not agreed to let him pursue a spot with a team abroad.
Jrmomo1000: Hi how good are the cardinals right now.
DG: They're fine. Middle of the pack, third-ish in the NL Central at the moment.
Jrmomo1000: What do you think they will do before spring training
DG: They will continue to explore trades for Arenado, and they are beginning to make bids for relievers, as they'd like to add at least one reliever to the back end of the bullpen. Mozeliak brought up the interest in a right-handed bat for the bench, but I personally wonder how long they go into spring training before looking to add a left-handed hitting shortstop to the bench. We'll see. Availability will be part of that.
Dylan Carlson -- bird of a different feather. Orioles announce he's signed a one-year deal with them.
BL: How much of the tone/conversation at the beginning of the offseason from front office and ownership about the reset was an excuse to cover for saving money instead of making meaningful free agent acquisitions this year, or how said conversation has changed about saving potential revenue this coming season? It is baffling overwhelmingly frustrating combination the front office has of late, the terrible public relations/communication skills, as well as the apparent lack of fortitude in committing to truly play the kids?
DG: As much as they said it was -- which is a lot. Going back to the press conference, and ownership/front office stated that a reason for the "reset" was the reduction in revenue that they expected. Mozeliak said that they were going to cut payroll. Full stop. He advertised it. He was asked how much, and he didn't put a price tag on it, but he said it would be significant, and I'm sure fans took note. It was a big part of the news coverage that day in outlets all around the أغر؟´«أ½ area. In their comments and in their actions, they made reducing payroll a part of it. If anything, it's the reverse of what you say. How much was cutting payroll and stating so publicly an excuse -- or "a cover" as you say -- for them to go young. Seriously, if you think they were "covering" for reducing payroll, then they did an awful job of that by bringing it up from day one.
There is one significant thing that has changed since that opening press conference, and that's that Contreras and Gray wished to remain with the Cardinals. They did not have that answer -- and they may have been speaking to them too by telling everyone that revenues will be less, so payroll will be too. But when they opted to stay that did create a new route for the winter.
jm: Do you know which players are at the ST complex already, if any?
DG: I don't have an exact headcount, no. Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, and Masyn Winn are all in the area and they have been working at the facility. Willson Conteras said he was going to go here in the near future to work with Oquendo at first base. This week, there are about 40 players expected there to begin an early spring training. That group includes prospects and also some 40-player roster folks who are there voluntarily, but also at the invitation of the staff.
Taguchi99: Not that I'm complaining, but why haven't the Cubs capitalized on their market size and weak division to buy themselves a few division titles?
DG: Good question. Maybe that's why the ownership got booed at fan fest?
Jrmomo1000: I think they can give the central a shot if they get a nother reliever. I f the trade arenado or not
DG: The NL Central is a neighborly group and definitely Midwestern nice when it comes to allowing each other to compete.
South City Steve: At this time in 2009 that Cardinals had missed the playoffs twice, Luhnow was revamping development and scouting for the organization, and what did DeWitt do? He traded for Mark DeRosa and then he traded for Matt Holliday. They got swept by LA in the playoffs that year. That winter DeWitt extended Holliday with the (still) largest FA contract ever by a Cardinal. The Cardinals missed the playoffs again in 2010. But fans kept showing up over and over because they believed that DeWitt was trying to win, even though it didn't happen right away. Fans don't believe that anymore. Saying "I expect a deep playoff run" and building a team that is capable are two completely different things, and now fans are paying much closer attention to the actions.
DG: It's almost as if you're suggesting that fans have more options when it comes to entertainment, some of which they can get what they want, when they want, and on the device that they want, and that some fans/consumers have less to spend on entertainment because costs have gone up elsewhere. Makes sense. That's what has happened. It's a dense marketplace when it comes to entertainment, and we all know how much the economy has changed since 2009, not mention -- ahem -- social media and its outsized influence. This isn't 2009 anymore, and fans/consumers aren't making decisions like it is.
(Quick aside and updatte: I find it interesting that 2009 is when you say Luhnow was "revamping development and scouting for the organization," because goodness by 2009 he had been in charge of the draft since 2005 and been tasked with leading the farm system for several years. How much grace was he given when today the thought of getting a year to do that is something we're all critical of ... Imagine for a moment if, in 2029, you're saying Bloom is revamping development and scouting in the organization and you're celebrating that.)
Bryan C: Why is Mo not moving the players who will be free agents after this year? I know someone has to want them. Fedde, Halsley, Matz, can Mo not get a good young player from trading any of them?
DG: Because the deadline to do so isn't until July, so he's got time.
If you are interested in the strategy and risk behind that, please scroll back into the chat or look at the transcript for more details.
Bryan C: Why is Mo letting all the young hitters play to see what the Cardinals have but not doing the same with the young pitchers?
DG: Three reasons come to mind and have been explored this afternoon in the chat.
1) 40% of the rotation said it would use its no-trade protection to remain with the Cardinals, while only 11% of the lineup did.
2) As discussed earlier, it is a sound approach to build a roster from innings outward, and have consistency in the rotation might allow for more turbulence with a young lineup, and thus allow for the young hitters to grow without a team just groping for innings and consistency. It might also give them positive feedback instead of building a lineup to grow on quicksand.
3) There's still time. The Cardinals are open to possibly trading starters in spring training to clear a spot for the young pitchers who mention, if that is what they prove in spring.
Jrmomo1000: I'm ready for spring training
DG: Looking at the snow outside, I can imagine many people are -- and the players would be included in that.
W6Mick: Are Pages and Sianni the current favorites for their positions on the opening day roster?
DG: No.
They are favorites to be on the roster and challengers for playing time.
Ed AuBuchon: Nootbaar in CF blocks VS2 and Siana.
DG: From?
W6Mick: Does that mean Noot and Herrera are the odds on favorites to start? Victor Scott didn’t seem quite ready last week saw him.
DG: No. It just means the positions are open to be determined with spring training -- and throughout the season. Those two positions, perhaps as much as any, are open for performance to make the call, and that may not be completed in spring training. It may not be clear until July. It may change in August. That's what it means to give young players a chance to play -- they can determine that.
Ken: Derrick I read a lot about how much or little MLB teams make . But it is a business. Do you have any ( evem Well I didn’t finish . Do you have any idea what the Net income is for the highest and lowest teams clear ? I realize teams treat income like the nuclear codes… Do you have wag ?
DG: The Atlanta Braves are owned by a publicly traded company and are publicly traded, and longtime readers of the PD or this chat will know that there was a time when we could line up Atlanta with the Cardinals and understand a lot about the Cardinals finances. That was about the time they were both tucked neatly into that 8-12 range when it came to revenues. Atlanta has won a World Series, been to the playoff regularly, and moved to a new ballpark, not to mention the larger market size when it comes to broadcast rights. So all of those things have, in recent years, widened the gap between the Cardinals and Atlanta. However, the Braves, with their publicly available finances, still give us valuable info for those willing to seek it out.
In a recent report, Atlanta said through three quarters it had baseball revenue of $273,262,000. They had an additional $17 million in mixed-use revenue and reported a total revenue then of around $290 million. Baseball expenses -- so mostly payroll -- were reported at $226 million. Atlanta also had expenses for development and for selling/administrating costs that were mostly static year to year. The public number they stated for income then was $6.4 million, down from $15.7 million in the same quarter the previous year. Again, these are broad brushes, but this is what Atlanta shares with its shareholders, and it gives you a glimpse into the industry.
If .
Mr Boondy: I find it funny that expansion is possible when 3/4 of the teams now can't or won't compete because of the dodgers.
DG: Expansion fees are lucrative for existing teams.
Uncle Redbird: Do you think the renewed emphasis on draft and DEVELOP makes it even more likely that they will continue to avoid higher bonus international prospects?
That's great for a high floor, but it seems like they need to swing for the fences every once in a while to get high-end talent into the system when it appears they'll continue to be caught in-between in the MLB standings/draft order.
DG: More likely? Not really. As likely as they have been for sure. This is an area where the Cardinals certainly need to see more return on the talents they bring in, absolutely. But shifting to put all of their bonus into one player -- that doesn't seem to fit ownership's style or risk management.
One thing to keep in mind, though, is in 2026 they should have a large bonus pool, maybe even one of the largest. So that's going to give them a chance to do more -- maybe take a leap for one of the big talents and also bring in a quantity of players. We'll see. They will have a good view of that months before the international market opens, and so will we. That is something we'll be asking about -- and that is something for you to look for.
BL: If ownership/front office has said they are comfortable with where the payroll is at and don't have to sell off any additional contracts with Arenado not being moved, why would they not be willing to eat more/most/all of his contract to expedite the process and potentially land a more well regarded prospect?
DG: Who says they wouldn't be? It is entirely possible they just don't yet have that offer. And that has been the case. I guess they could say they'll cover ALL of his remaining salary and just give him to a team. But is that the kind of deal they're looking to make? A few teams want the Cardinals to take on more salary. Don't confuse that with them also offering a better prospect. And here we are. The lack of a deal tells you a lot.
Bryan C: With Gray, Fedde, Mikolas,and maybe Pallante, McGreevy, Matz, is this starting rotation as good as last year?
DG: It could be. It really should be, honestly.
Jim from DeBary FL: I think for a team like the Cardinals to follow in the footsteps of Tampa Bay is ideal. Look, the Dodgers took a top guy from Tampa to gain their insight in picking and developing talent. Even though the Dodgers have a magnitude of resources above Tampa, it was wise to also improve their development skills.
DG: You sound like the Cardinal owners and front office, candidly.
Paul W.: You mention the threshold for winning a division has gone from 90 towards 95 games. I used to consider a season with 90+ wins as very successful (even without post-season success), but I'm wondering if that doesn't hold up anymore. I haven't done a deep look, but do you think it is more likely for at least one club to win 100+ games now then say 1993(?) when two NL West clubs won 100+ and one was left sitting outside the playoffs because they didn't win the division?
DG: Yes. Tanking skewed the standings. For proof, take a look at this past year in the AL Central. They got three teams into the playoffs -- Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. And all of those wins had to come from somewhere. Oh, hey, look they came from the atrocious White Sox. Same as when Houston pulled the plug on contention all those years ago, and check out how many teams from their division reached October. The NL Central has also benefited as teams feast on the Pirates or Reds to reach the playoffs with wins while the NL West devours itself. Tanking has introduced wins inflation for sure.
JJ: Derrick, thank you as always for doing this work to provide us with insights from your reporting. Much appreciated. Question: How might Alec Burleson be viewed by other clubs? Would he be a valuable trade piece, or not so much due to his limitations defensively. For fun -- as we fans like to do -- would adding him to a possible deal with Boston for Arenado, be a plus in getting someone like Triston Casas back in return?
DG: This kind of trade proposal makes more sense on the surface than adding Helsley into any Boston talk. If the Cardinals were to do that -- they'd really have to come up with a good explanation, or they'd just be acknowledging that as long as they cut salary they didn't care what it cost to do it. That said, other teams have had interest in Burleson. There is the defensive question, but some see him as a first baseman, which the Cardinals also see him as. What the Cardinals don't see him as is a finished product. They see more upside, higher ceiling, more production from him -- and time and time and time again this winter they've talked about not trading players specifically like Burleson to see him thrive elsewhere. There's a real reluctance to do that and that is why the Cardinals, at last check, have been trying to really streamline and simplify trade talks for Arenado. The deal is complicated enough. And the benefit of seeing what Burleson can do with another year of strong playing time -- maybe he's part of the core group, or maybe he's the trade that brings in talent for the core group down the road. They need time to figure that out.
CrampyCrampaneris: Why the focus on Gorman after he failed to return last season after demotion? My two cents: Hello
DG: First-round pick. Power. Upside. All of those are the reasons.
Ed AuBuchon: VS2 and Sianni are better defensively than Lars. That's why Oli played Sianni last year. If you are playing the young guys, let them play.
DG: And? Lars Nootbaar has a higher upside offensively and is more productive. He also, according to the club, is one of the young guys they want to give playing time to this coming season. So ...
Alan: Maybe too early to ask, but are there any players who could surprise and break camp with the big club in April?
DG: Quinn Mathews and Gordon Graceffo come to mind.
JB in Indy: Hi Derrick, When is the automated strike zone coming to the MLB? I’ve seen both the fully automated and the challenge system in AAA. I prefer the fully automated. Other sports are trying to move away from players using acting talent to fool the game officials and I hope baseball will too.
DG: The Cardinals will have about 20 games with it this spring training. MLB is going to test it this spring, get players used to it, get feedback from them, and the earliest it can be in the majors is 2026, and depending on who you ask or how quickly they want to do it and how well it goes this spring, there's a sense by 2027. Earliest 2026. Realistic 2027.
Jason S.: You mentioned on your podcast that someone asked Dewitt at WWU about retiring Rolen’s number. What was his answer to that question?
DG: That they're working to establish/codify standards for honoring players that can be consistently applied case by case and also perhaps used to address some players from the past who should be considered for a statue or number retirement. Specifically about Rolen, Bill DeWitt III quoted the percentage of his career and his WAR that was with the Cardinals and how much if it came with other teams, too. Also, at the event he mentioned how I done some research on standards, and that is true. I have been researching both the standards of other teams and also looking into the Cardinals' past for guidance on such honors. What are the shared traits? Who has slipped through while meeting those traits? In the end, ownership wants to take the research from a variety of sources and perhaps codify what they do with numbers and statues in addition to the team's Hall of Fame. Retiring Rolen's number would be one of the early tests then.
South City Steve: Fans are tired of hearing about the Cardinals’ financial woes, and it has nothing to do with DeWitt’s personal wealth. From 2007 to 2010, during the height of the recession and with the Cardinals missing the playoffs 3 times in 4 years, the average attendance was over 3.2m fans. From 2016-2018 when the Cardinals missed the playoffs 3 times in a row again, the avg attendance was over 3.4m fans per year. The fans gave and gave and gave, and for about 23 years that was reciprocated by DeWitt as his franchise ballooned in value. But the ROI has become less and less and less. The yield that was once elite on-field talent, deep playoff runs, and exciting baseball has turned into nostalgia signings, a stale front office, and bobblehead giveaways. This organization is where it is because DeWitt got lazy about investing in it and even lazier about managing it. He slaughtered his own cash cow by torching his goodwill with fans.
DG: And yet they finished seventh in average attendance this past season, and seventh in ticket sales. For the first time they were less than 3.0 million which is a statement from the fans, for sure, and consumer activism is to be applauded.
But to borrow from Mark Twain: News of this "torching his goodwill" is greatly exaggerated online. They still finished seventh in average, seventh in ticket sales, and still had support from fans that is the envy of other clubs.
But hey, anger online is at an all-time high!
South City Steve: Can MLB somehow compress free agency?
DG: Yes. Other leagues do. It can create deadlines. Selig didn't want to -- he wanted the hot stove to always burn and baseball to always be in the headlines. Some believe that is an outdated approach and are pushing for dead periods.
wow: Great AFC championship game yesterday. Oh wait, nobody in the Stl cares about the NFL and of course this paper reports nothing on it Oh Well!!!!
DG: This is a baseball chat. Got a baseball question?
The Kansas City Star had superb coverage of the game, I'm sure.
AJ in NoVA: In a previous chat, I asked Lynn about the possibility of the young starting prospects being used out of the bullpen and that still seems to be unlikely to happen. Under Dave Duncan young pitchers like Wainwright and Lynn began their careers in the bullpen. Has the team (and baseball) moved away from giving youngsters their first taste of the big leagues, or am I just remembering two isolated success stories?
DG: McGreevy and Graceffo have both been mentioned by name as starters in the minors who could see time as relievers in the coming year, and we all just watched a year of that for Libeatore, and the Cardinals still want to see him realize his ability as a starter. So, I'm not sure if the door is as closed as your question suggests.
Carlos Martinez also started in the bullpen, and there are a handful of examples around baseball. It's involves need as much as process.
DCG: So, how much better might the return for Arenado be if he were to come out and have a resurgent first half, something along a .280/.340/.475?
DG: Some, for sure. Plus there would be less on his deal to take on. If teams are concerned about the trendline in his game and what risk they're taking on, a start like that would definitely change perception. It also might make the Cardinals a good team and not eager to trade him. What a plot twist!
Millo Miller: Derrick, greetings this Mon. Read the article on Mo yesterday and 2 things caught my attention. 1st, draft, develop, retain and the 2nd is Mo anticipates payroll going up eventually. To retain players and sign quality free agents, payroll is going to have to go up. My question is to what level, previous levels which would be an increase over today or are the DeWitt's willing to push the envelope? Salaries are going to keep climbing. Also BDW IIIs comments about payroll tied to attendance, what if we have a couple of more years of declining attendance, then what. Will ownership wait for an increase at the gate or will they make a bigger investment in hopes of bringing people back? Thanks for your time Derrick.
DG: These are all great questions, and please don't take this wrong -- it was a question that I was asking of some folks, too, so I'm not just saying it's a great question because I was asking it. I just think it's one that should get more attention.
Let's put it this way, if the Cardinals are taking two steps back from spending while the industry goes two step forward in spending, then at the same point next year, they'll need go six steps forward to catch up, and are they willing to do this?
I asked an executive with the team if they're not willing to keep pace now with the spending and are indeed taking a step back, then how are fans to believe they'll ever have the stomach to catch back up -- especially when it's just going to take more than ever to do so. I asked a variation of this question to ownership, too, when wondering about the spiral they've invited. How I phrased it in the paper: draw less, spend less, win less, so they draw less, spend less, win less. That's a whirlpool for sure.
That's the background of the question. So what's the answer?
The short answer is: They better. Or they won't contend. Or their window to contend will be fleeting and they'll be developing players for other teams to sign as a free agents and contend.
The long answer from the Cardinals is this, and it's one that we discussed earlier in the chat with payroll efficiency: It's that they want to build up the core group, identify that core group, make a commitment to the core group at market value (so, Masyn Winn would score the largest deal in club history?), and then outfit that core group when it's ready to leap not into contention but into certainty. Again, think going from 92 to 95 wins, 95 to 98 wins, not 82 to 85 wins. Maybe 85 to 90 wins is a better example. You get the gist. At that point, yes, prices are going to be higher, yes free agents are only going to command more. For this to work as they outline, the Cardinals are going to have to be willing to meet the market somewhere.
Aside: If you wrote me a question about a book inscription, can you email me? dgoold at post-dispatch dot com. I'll be happy to help.
Ed AuBuchon: Is Kyle Gibson still possible? Our young starters will have to have bullpen rolls as Fedde, Matz ,Mikolas & Gray are still in the mix. Thanks for the chat.
DG: The answer I've received is this: If they make a trade from the group they have, then he's near the top of the list of offers they'll make.
AJ in NoVA: Have you ever covered (or considered covering) the annual Congressional Baseball Game for Charity? $2.2 million raised for charity last year and the some the nerdiest cheers you will ever hear during a ballgame.
DG: The one time that the Cardinals were in town and I had a chance to cover it, I did make the pitch to do so. News broke elsewhere, so I wasn't able to do it, and I'm not sure my credential request was approved, to be honest. Usually, I have a Cardinals assignment somewhere else in the country on that day.
BL: Do you think that the way they set this transfer of power, so to speak, the way they have is out of respect to Mo and his time with the org, Bloom not wanting to take over in a year where he knew he'd be in a position somewhat similar as he stepped into Boston (maybe not trading a player of Mookie's stature, especially in the midst of his prime and not the point of career Arenado is in) or some combination of the two?
DG: More the former than the latter, and maybe the latter not at all. And then there's the other significant reason: The Cardinals really wanted to give Chaim Bloom the space to focus on building the minor-league system. He doesn't have to deal with the day to day transactions, the major-league stuff, the trade of Arenado or not trading and all of that stuff while he can focus solely on modernizing the farm system. That is one of the leading reasons for this: To give him a year where that's his focus and where he can also evaluate who will be a part of the organization from that point on -- and that goes for players and coaches, scouts and front office folk. In a way, they're giving him two years to get ready for the future and not bogging him down with the present at the same time.
And, yes, ownership has great respect and faith in Mozeliak and the decades he's given them. Ownership's opinion and view of the front office is not shaped by social media and in some cases is not shared by it either.
Bryan C: Why do the Cardinals talk about where they use to pick in the draft when they were winning? In baseball their is not a great way to know if a draft pick is going to work out or not. So just say for 3 years they pick 30th. That means they get the chance to pick what they think is the 30,60 90th best pick. Can you show me what the percentage is of each spot in the top 30 being a good MLB player?
DG: I don't have that at the tip of my finger, but if you're interested there have been many many many many many studies done on this, and they're readily available either from Baseball America or elsewhere. The studies actually refute your assertion: In baseball, teams absolutely should know the kind of odds on a high return from a specific draft pick. They base their bonuses on it. Teams base what they're willing to spend on it. It's essential that they use the many studies regarding this to know exactly the probability of high returns on specific draft picks. Heck, there are executives with teams around the majors who have those positions because they were hired as a result of their studies into the draft and what teams can expect pick by pick and the value of making smart picks. If anything, the Cardinals got ahead in the draft because they were able to do exactly what you said baseball cannot, and they're in this bind now because other teams are doing it better.
Millo Miller: Derrick, do you foresee a strike coming after the current CBA expires? With what is happening in the FA market and Japanese players flocking to the west coast, something has to change. Baseball is approaching a dangerous crossroads as regards to competitive balance. They need to get this straightened out, but will they? Thanks DG: A work stoppage sure seems likely, and all sides are gearing up for it. It is more likely to be a lockout (initiated by the owners when there isn't a deal) than a strike (initiated by the players when they don't like the deal). So, look for a lockout. That's the more likely event.
South City Steve: Do you believe DeWitt wants another ring, and more importantly is he willing to do what it takes to go after it? And I don't mean adding a collection of former cardinals who are in the twilight of their careers, or crossing their fingers that every young player makes the biggest possible leap, or that "anything can happen in the playoffs." I mean building a team with an awesome 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, a solid 2-5 in the batting order, and some veterans who have post-season experience - which also might be the manager.
DG: Another ring? Yes.
Willing to do what it takes to go after it -- in the modern game with the modern landscape and Dodgers-rocket-fueled spending?
Well, we'll find out together.
Alright, seems like a good place to halt the chat and table any further questions until next week. It's been a doozy. Maybe by the next time we chat the Cardinals will have made a move, any move for the major-league roster. They're looking to do so. Only one more chat to go before the Post-Dispatch will be in Jupiter, Florida, and several days into the coverage of the Cardinals' spring training. It's going to be different, that's for sure, even if some of the same faces are there.
Chat with you next week. Aloha.
