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Republican U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley faces a well-funded and active opponent on Tuesday in Democrat Lucas Kunce. The challenger has closely tied his campaign to the abortion-rights ballot question and has distanced himself from national Democrats as he tries to appeal to voters with a populist message.

But even with Democrats largely attaching themselves to , Missouri voters may be poised to deliver a split decision Tuesday: legalizing abortion and electing Republicans up and down the statewide ticket.

While the and campaigns for ballot measures saw heavy spending, contests for other statewide offices have largely been quieter and less expensive since the rough-and-tumble August primary.

Observers say the toned-down election cycle is the product of Missouri becoming a Republican stronghold.

Not only have Democrats been shut out of statewide offices, but the House and Senate have become dominated by Republican majorities.

Rep. Cody Smith, a Carthage Republican who ran unsuccessfully for state treasurer in August, said there are two factors contributing to the muted campaign season.

“Since Missouri has become a reliably red state, the focus has been on the primaries, the Republican primary specifically. And, secondarily, the ballot questions facing voters have taken up a lot of the oxygen in the room as it relates to this general election cycle,� said Smith, who served as chairman of the powerful House Budget Committee.

“Not to say the elections are predetermined in the primaries, but that does seem to be the focus in Missouri,� Smith added.

Terry Smith, a political science professor at Columbia College, said a Republican sweep of statewide offices was likely, that the minimum wage and paid sick leave question would probably win, and that “I still think abortion rights will win — probably close.�

“The Democratic brand is not good,� the professor said. “Statewide, people will vote for policy that Democrats will tend to support but they don’t vote for candidates of that party.�

The premise that Republicans may again have a lock on winning the governor’s race and other statewide offices is reflected in the flow of money to a series of ballot initiatives.

Campaign finance reports show supporters of ending Missouri’s abortion ban have spent $28 million to convince voters to cast a “yes� vote, while those who want to and a have spent more than $40 million.

By contrast, about $17 million has been spent on behalf of Lt. Gov. ’s bid for governor, while his Democratic opponent, , has raised about $2.2 million.

Despite a lead in the polls and in the money race, Kehoe says he hasn’t taken his foot off the gas since winning a three-way primary.

“I don’t take anything for granted,� Kehoe said during a radio interview Wednesday.

Abortion, statewide races

The wild card in this year’s election, however, is the abortion question. Democrats are hoping support for overturning the current ban will bring more voters to the polls and, in some cases, give Republicans an opportunity to back a Democrat whose positions align with restoring access to the procedure.

Quade has tied her campaign to the abortion question, hoping to convince voters who may have leaned toward a Republican candidate to vote for her based on her support of the amendment.

In a fundraising appeal texted to potential supporters Wednesday, Quade said, “With the future of abortion rights on the line and the election just six days away, we must do everything we can to keep Mike Kehoe out of the Governor’s Office.�

In the final weekend of the race, Kehoe, a former senator and Jefferson City businessman, started the weekend in Quade’s hometown of Springfield, which she has represented in the House for the past eight years.

The lieutenant governor’s bus tour stopped at Friday with Attorney General , who faces Democrat on Tuesday. Later Friday, Kehoe and Bailey attended the Newton County Republican Party’s .

Kehoe, a ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ native who is attempting to close the political gap between urban and rural voters, had stops in and Saturday morning before rolling through in Pulaski County later that day.

More events were slated for Monday when the statewide Republican ticket is expected to barnstorm on the day before voters head to the polls for in-person voting. A ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ stop is planned.

Quade, meanwhile, was scheduled to attend rallies in the Kansas City area Friday and Saturday before attending an event with state prison correctional officers who endorsed her.

Along with an event in Columbia, Quade’s weekend schedule also includes a Sunday visit with United Auto Workers members in Wentzville and a phone bank in ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ County.

Kehoe will spend election night at an event center in Jefferson City, while Quade is set for an event in Springfield.

Other statewide contests include:

• : Republican David Wasinger, a ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ County attorney who formerly served on the University of Missouri Board of Curators, has heavily outspent Democrat Richard Brown, the assistant minority leader in the Missouri House.
• : Rep. Barbara Phifer, a Methodist pastor from Kirkwood, faces Sen. Denny Hoskins of Warrensburg. Phifer has criticized Hoskins for adopting some of former President Donald Trump’s debunked election fraud stances. She has also said his plan to hand-count ballots would “create chaos.â€�
• : Republican Vivek Malek, an immigrant from India who was appointed to the post by Gov. Mike Parson, has run on a heavily anti-illegal immigration platform. His opponent, Democrat Mark Osmack, says the treasurer’s office has little to do with the nation’s southern border.
• : Bailey, another Parson appointee, won an expensive Republican primary against Will Scharf in August. Gross, Bailey’s general election challenger, has run a spirited campaign with far less funding than Scharf had.

State House, Senate races

While Republicans are favored in statewide matchups, Democrats are looking to pick up state legislative seats in competitive suburban areas.

Republicans controlled the Missouri House 111-52 after the last election. Democrats are looking to win at least three seats to take Republicans below a two-thirds majority and gain bargaining power.

In the Senate, Republicans controlled 24 seats while the Democrats had 10 after the election two years ago.

The top target for Democrats is the west ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ County 15th Senate District, a contest featuring former Republican state Rep. David Gregory and Democrat Joe Pereles, both of Chesterfield.

Democrats are expected to easily flip the Boone County-based 19th District, currently held by Republican Senate President Caleb Rowden, after the district shed heavily Republican Cooper County when maps were redrawn in 2022.

But Republicans could cancel out that victory with a win in the Independence-based 11th Senate District, which became more favorable to the GOP after redistricting.

Other Senate races that could be close include the Clay County-based 17th District, where Democratic state Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern faces Republican Jerry Nolte.

Observers are also watching the eastern St. Charles County 23rd Senate District. Democrat Matt Williams faces Republican state Rep. Adam Schnelting in an area seen as increasingly competitive.

In the race for the House, a top target for Republicans is the Manchester-based 98th District, which Democrats flipped in a special election in 2019.

Top ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½-area targets for Democrats, meanwhile, include the Ballwin-based 100th District and the St. Charles-based 105th District.