蜜芽传媒

The first was in 2007, when Ed Martin, then chief of staff for Gov. Matt Blunt, a Republican, sent an email on his government account to anti-abortion activists seeking to rally them against Blunt鈥檚 chief rival, then Attorney General Jay Nixon, a Democrat. An anti-abortion activist received the email and was offended that Martin would do this sort of political work on the state鈥檚 dime. That person sent the email to me. I filed a Sunshine Law request for it. Martin said he deleted it.

This was before former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 鈥渉er emails鈥� became a national scandal, but it became a controversy of its own, ending with Martin losing his job, multiple lawsuits being filed, Blunt鈥檚 administration eventually handing over more than 60,000 emails to three media outlets and the state paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars to a whistleblower.

Fast forward to 2012. Republican Todd Akin was running for Senate against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. Asked by television reporter Charles Jaco why he was opposed to exceptions to abortion restrictions in cases of rape and incest, Akin responded that the female body has a way of shutting down pregnancy in cases of 鈥渓egitimate rape.鈥�

An instant national controversy ensued, with Missouri Republicans and national Republicans distancing themselves from Akin and condemning his remarks.

What a quaint time that was. Fast forward one more decade and neither of those controversies would create a ripple in the political waters. Those waters, however, were whipped up into a tsunami this week with the leak of a draft U.S. Supreme Court majority opinion that, if it stands, would overturn the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision that recognized a right to privacy and made abortion legal. Because of trigger laws passed by Republicans in the past few years, abortion would instantly become illegal in 13 states, including Missouri, if Roe is overturned.

The holy grail of Republican politics would be reached. Or would it?

This is where a trip back to 2012 is valuable. While some Republicans, like U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, have been quick to cheer the potential opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito, others have been more muted in their responses, seeing the potential the ruling would have to rally Democrats, and women who otherwise might be classified as independent or moderate Republican voters, during the important 2022 midterms.

That was the fear in 2012 that caused so many Republicans to run from Akin. They were afraid he would drag down the Republican ticket, and he did, contributing to McCaskill鈥檚 victory. Most national polls have long showed that a majority of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in some circumstances. That was true in 2012 and is true today. Since Gallup started polling the issue, the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances in the mid- to high teens, a consistent, and fairly small, minority of voters.

Meanwhile, Texas passed a law earlier this year that seeks to create a private cause of action for citizens to punish women who seek abortions in other states, and Missouri and other similarly minded Republican-controlled legislatures are pondering similar laws. In 2022, vigilantism has become a core Republican value, it seems. Laws are being contemplated that will not just ban things elected Republicans are opposed to, such as abortion, or health care for transgender people, or public-health protections during a pandemic, or racial equity teaching in schools, but also will seek to criminalize or civilly punish those who violate such bans.

The political world, particularly on the Republican side, has changed a lot since 2007, but the polling on abortion restrictions has not. What comes next, if the Supreme Court vacates nearly 50 years of precedent and overturns Roe?

That鈥檚 up to voters in 2022, in an election now likely to be waged over the legitimacy of the nation鈥檚 highest court.